The 2013 Edition of the World Refining & Fuels Service (WRFS) provides a comprehensive and complete update of the previous year’s forecasts and analysis. This forecast provides an update of crude oil supply, crude oil and refined product demand, biofuels supply, fuel quality initiatives and refining as well as refined product market trends through 2035.
To explore the relationships between refining capability and refined product demand, as well as the role of technology in meeting evolving product quality requirements, Hart Energy has employed linear program modeling of regional refining and product demand centers. Crude oil quality and quantity, product demand and refining capacities presented in this section were input into models representing the years 2011, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2035. Product quality standards were specified for each year. Alternative and renewable fuel projections were also incorporated into the modeling.
For the cases beyond 2011, regional models included options to expand refining capacity as needed to meet refined product volume and quality requirements with the available crude oil slate. The refinery expansion representations included capital cost recovery factors for each type and unit of incremental capacity. The models selected expansion options based on capital costs and regional market economics.
Model output for each region provided projections of crude oil processed, refined product output, product quality and capacity utilization. The models also estimated the combination of capacity changes, operational shifts and costs; new capacity that will be required to meet progressively cleaner product specifications; and increasing clean product volume demands.
This section provides a discussion of the outlook for refining and refined product markets for 2011 through 2035; projections of regional refining supply, demand and refining capacity expansion are summarized, based on modeling output and analysis. The discussion also includes a review of anticipated refined product market trends.