The Latin American region includes Mexico, Central America, non-U.S. Caribbean and South America. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are included in the North American section.
Latin American crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) production will increase by 2.9 million barrels per day (b/d) between 2011 and 2035. Crude oil exports are projected to increase to 4.19 million b/d by 2020 and then gradually decline to 2.25 million b/d in 2035 as Latin American domestic consumption increases.
GDP in Latin America rebounded from a 1.7% decrement in 2009 to 4.0% growth in 2011. The growth has continued in 2012 and it is expected that the growth rate for the year will be 4.2%. Gasoline demand including ethanol has grown at an average annual rate of 4.0% and distillate demand has grown at an average of 2.0% in the last five years (2007-2012). Fuel growth rates are expected to continue to be strong, driven by energy-intensity requirements as the region develops. Latin America is projected to be the third-fastest growing region in the world behind the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.
Significant changes in refining and refined product markets will occur during the 2012-2035 period. Crude oil distillation capacity will require expansion; aggressive conversion capacity expansion will be required, too. Progressively more stringent product specifications will require large gasoline and distillate desulfurization capacity expansions. Some countries, such as Brazil and Colombia, are upgrading and/or building new refineries to make the transition. Other countries, such as Venezuela and Argentina, have done little to prepare for a transition to cleaner fuels.