The Latin American region includes Mexico, Central America, the non-U.S. Caribbean and South America. Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are included in the North American section.
Latin American crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) production will increase by 4.67 million barrels per day (b/d), from 10.09 million b/d to 14.76 million b/d, between 2012 and 2030. Crude oil exports are projected to increase to 4.36 million b/d by 2025 and then gradually decline to 3.17 million b/d in 2035 as Latin American domestic consumption increases.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in Latin America rebounded from a 1.7% decline in 2009 to 4.0% growth in 2011. The growth continued in 2012, and it is expected that the growth rate for the year will be 2.82%. Gasoline demand including ethanol has grown at an average annual rate of 4.0%, and middle distillate demand has grown at an average of 2.0% in the last five years (2007-2012). Fuel growth rates are expected to continue to be strong, driven by energy-intensity requirements as the region develops. Latin America is projected to be the fourth-fastest-growing region in the world behind the Middle East, Africa and CIS.
Significant changes in refining and refined product markets will occur during the 2012-2035 period. Crude oil distillation capacity will require expansion; aggressive conversion capacity expansion will also be needed. Progressively more stringent product specifications will require large gasoline and middle distillate desulfurization capacity expansions. Some countries, such as Brazil and Colombia, are upgrading and/or building new refineries to make the transition. Others, such as Venezuela and Argentina, have done little to prepare for a transition to cleaner fuels ...