With the demand for petroleum continuously increasing, conventional CIS supplies are becoming more critical to the needs of Europe and, more recently, other regions. However, because of developments in other parts of the world, exports will remain at about 2011 levels until 2035 with a peak at around 2015. Crude oil production will increase only by 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) from 2011 to 2035.
The CIS has surplus refining capacity operating at low utilization. Downstream refinery expansion and modernization will continue to allow for the supply of incremental product to the tight European clean diesel (10 ppm) market through 2035.