In the recent past, gasoline markets have experienced large premiums for octane, reflecting pressure on gasoline supply and octane production capability. Pressure on the octane market has been driven by gasoline sulfur reductions (and related refinery processing octane loss), removal of MTBE from the U.S. market, and final stages of lead removal. Premiums peaked at 5 to 7 cents per octane-gallon.

 

In the future, gasoline market dynamics will change substantially as will octane markets. Gasoline sulfur reductions and changes in ether blending will have less impact on octane trends while growth in biofuel (ethanol) will add to octane capability. Upgrade of low octane gasoline grades in some key markets and new gasoline quality initiatives (i.e., benzene/aromatics restrictions) will place new demand on octane.

Hart’s new study examines regional market octane requirements and quantifies impacts of gasoline grade split, quality requirements, and biofuel growth on refinery and market octane requirements. It provides projections of regional gasoline and octane demand, the role of non-refinery components and gasoline quality requirements and net requirements for refinery generated octane.

 

Globally and separately for each region of the world – North America, Latin America, Europe, Russia & CIS, Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa – the study analyzes the following:

1. Gasoline and octane market demand 2007-2020
2. Impact of biofuels, components and gasoline quality requirements
on octane levels
3. Changing refinery octane requirements

 

Preliminary Report Outline:

II. Executive Summary

III. Introduction and Octane Market Overview

A. Historic octane market overview
B. Octane market drivers

IV. Regional Octane Outlook

A. North American Outlook 2007-2020
1. Gasoline and octane market demand
2. Impact of biofuels, components and gasoline quality requirements
on octane levels
3. Changing refinery octane requirements
B. Latin America Outlook 2007-2020
1. Gasoline and octane market demand
2. Impact of biofuels, components and gasoline quality requirements
on octane levels
3. Changing refinery octane requirements
C. Europe Outlook 2007-2020
1. Gasoline and octane market demand
2. Impact of biofuels, components and gasoline quality requirements
on octane levels
3. Changing refinery octane requirements
D. Russia/CIS Outlook 2007-2020
1. Gasoline and octane market demand
2. Impact of biofuels, components and gasoline quality requirements
on octane levels
3. Changing refinery octane requirements
E. Asia Pacific Outlook 2007-2020
1. Gasoline and octane market demand
2. Impact of biofuels, components and gasoline quality requirements
on octane levels
3. Changing refinery octane requirements
F. Middle East Outlook 2007-2020
1. Gasoline and octane market demand
2. Impact of biofuels, components and gasoline quality requirements
on octane levels
3. Changing refinery octane requirements
G. Africa Outlook 2007-2020
1. Gasoline and octane market demand
2. Impact of biofuels, components and gasoline quality requirements
on octane levels
3. Changing refinery octane requirements
H. Global Summary Outlook 2007-2020
1. Gasoline and octane market demand
2. Impact of biofuels, components and gasoline quality requirements
on octane levels
3. Changing refinery octane requirements